4. Policy framework to support adaptation to demographic change¹⁵

The chapter briefly summarises the policy framework of, and presents general guidelines for the planning of local and regional actions to adapt to demographic change on the basis of outcomes of the ADAPT2DC project.

4.1. Policy framework

Most of the policies related to demographic change are developed by the member states of the European Union; however the EU has also formulated strategic aims regarding its demographic development and its appropriate handling. As demographic change has a wide range of social and economic impacts, is implicitly included in various policy documents dealing with broad themes such as regional cohesion, and is especially expressed in five central strategic documents:

• Lisbon Strategy(2000)
• Green Paper: Confronting demographic change. A new solidarity between the generations (2005)
• The Demographic Future of Europe - From Challenge to Opportunity (2006)
• Leipzig Charter on Sustainable European Cities (2007)
• Europe 2020 Strategy (2010)
• Budapest Communiqué on European urban areas facing demographic and climate challenges by the Directors General responsible for urban development (2011)
• Territorial Agenda of the European Union 2020 (2011)

The Commission’s Renewed Social Agenda also deals with the question of ageing. The Commission has launched a pilot European Innovation Partnership (EIP) on Active and Healthy Ageing. Year 2012 was proclaimed as the European Year for Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations. The European Parliament issued a report on demographic change and its consequences for the future cohesion policy of the EU. Also, numerous documents on demographic changes were prepared by the European Economic and Social Committee, and the Committee of Regions is also active concerning demographic challenges.

Further international organisations, such as the WHO and OECD also developed guidelines regarding policies for ageing and shrinking population.

Key points of the aforementioned documents are presented in the analysis The Transnational Review of European and Regional Strategic Documents on Demographic Changes elaborated in the ADAPT2DC project.

Nevertheless, regional and national contexts and frameworks need to be considered while transferring good examples and experiences from one region to another. Transferability can only be reached if there is enough knowledge about responsibilities and financing structures in the different infrastructure and service areas in the respective countries. Demographic change usually emerges as an issue as a part of the wider background for policy documents; policies exclusively focused on demographic change are not common. The relevant policy framework is also dependent on the regulations of the specific field in the given country. Certain fields, such as transport, are mostly governed by national level policies – however, constitution of the state may still create differences e.g. in case of federal states – while in other fields, such as education, social services or housing, regional and local policies may also be relevant.

4.2. Guidelines for planning local and regional actions to adapt to demographic change

Below we present general guidelines for stakeholders planning actions to adapt to demographic change. Most of the guidelines presented aim to help local and regional policy makers; however, some are also valid and useful for national and international level policy making.

Acknowledging the reality of shrinkage

For decades, policy makers and other stakeholders were used to managing growth, the term ‘growth’ and ‘development’ were often treated as synonyms.¹⁶ Such an approach needs to be revised, and political concepts adapted to the reality of shrinkage, as ‘blind’ growth is no longer desirable – considering the overexploitation of natural resources, climate change, the ongoing financial crisis – nor the reality. ‘Planning for shrinkage’ is a very new issue, not necessarily easy to accept for stakeholders. So far, in most countries the issue of shrinkage has only appeared on the policy agenda when profound problems have already become virulent (from housing vacancies to social segregation). However, a more general re-thinking is necessary, with mainstreaming of “planning for shrinkage” into wider policy and planning agenda. One option is to change current growth-oriented strategies into qualitative decline-oriented ones.

Shrinkage may provide the opportunity to create a more liveable, less dense living environment and may lead to a new equilibrium on a lower spatial and population level.

Long-term thinking

When making and implementing policies for demographic change, long term, strategic thinking is necessary, as the challenges posed by demographic change are complex, actions to tackle them may take effect only in a longer time span and involve a variety of actors. Focussing in election periods will not lead to effective responses. In addition, a mere reaction to crises will be more expensive than long-term planning.

Pilot action approach

A pilot action approach is considered as a complementary tool for traditional top-down policies. First, they enable policy makers to identify solutions more soundly based on local resources, the involvement of local stakeholders, adapted to the local context. Second, they are also feasible to test policy innovations before adapting them more widely. However, it is important to develop and maintain channels (protocols) through which experiences of pilot projects can effectively be incorporated into higher level policies. All pilot actions shall seek the most economically advantageous solutions for regions and cities under shrinking population conditions. The actions shall try to fit into the local context in accordance with legislation in force and trying to have influence on governance to open towards a new strategy. The aim of these actions might not be to amend the current laws considerably, just to improve existing policies or services.

Some factors may limit the transferability of actions, such as a lack of available institutional partners, investors and investments, the lack of critical mass of affected citizens (potential users of services and/or resources), lack of competences (ICT or specific knowledge for service provision). Frequent changes and uncertainty regarding the competences of public actors may also pose a problem. Pilot actions refer to the local legal, financial, social circumstances and target a field of need. The place and level of the intervention should always be considered, thus could be viable for practical use.

Revising standards and regulations

Current legal standards and regulations often impede effective responses to demographic change, as many of them are tailored for cities with high population densities. Shrinking communities may lose the resources necessary to comply with standards and current regulations (e.g. to maintain the required minimum sizes of school classes). Therefore a flexibilisation of standards and regulations would give shrinking regions more room for innovations. Changes may include new standards, exceptions from existing standards and/or scale-differentiated standards.

Regulations regarding the provision of grants and subsidies to local authorities from higher levels of government need to be revised, since they are often determined (fully or partially) by population numbers.

Compromise between holistic thinking and reality

Shrinkage and ageing affects several policy areas, so a holistic approach considering all policy areas is probably the ideal solution.

Affected policy areas include, among others, financial policy, social policy, employment, education, health, family policy, housing, environment, transport, infrastructure management, civic participation, migration policy, gender equality, human rights, social cohesion, R+D as well as spatial planning and regional development.

However, to develop and implement actions referring to all relevant policy areas is hardly manageable. Therefore, it is recommended to start with the identification of a limited set of prior issues and policy areas (health care, social service, infrastructure management, transport etc.), considering the area’s characteristics and the resources and mandates of stakeholders. After selecting them, however, attention has to be paid to the interlinksto other issues and areas (e.g. if the spatial arrangement effects social issues). The aim is to find a compromise between the complexity of potential actions and realistic prioritising.

Multi-level approach

Due to the complexity of challenges related to demographic change, it is necessary to involve/consider several scales of actions, going beyond the borders of the given area: from the single citizen through the regional public authorities up to the national government. Considering higher territorial levels (regional, national) is especially important for local actions as they will not be efficient, if they are not coordinated with the regional and national framework.

It is important that priorities set regarding demographic change are supported horizontally across sectors and at all levels of public administration, otherwise they might function counter-effectively.

Spatial cooperation and coordination

Effective responses to demographic change may exceed the given territorial level. Therefore especially in small peripheral and marginalised areas co-operation and co-ordination of regions/settlements does emerge as a necessity. It can also help to avoid unproductive competition e.g. the designation of new housing estates or commercial field at the expense of neighbouring communities or competing against each other for subsidies or grants when cooperation and co-ordinated action would lead to better results. Forms of cooperation shall be exploited in a cross-border context as well.

Multi-actor approach

To provide effective responses to demographic change needs various kinds of resources, from voluntary engagement of citizens through the innovative capacity of NGOs or the adaptation capacity of institutions up to the regulatory power of national authorities and financial sources of funding organisations. Therefore in order to design and implement actions to adapt to demographic change, all potential actors should be involved/considered in planning as well as the implementation of actions. The set of actors may greatly vary depending on the issue, including for example policy makers, local institutions, service providers, NGOs, citizen groups, representatives of neighbouring communities and other territorial scales (e.g. national government) etc.

Participation

A participatory approachis an effective tool to design and implement local responses to demographic change. Such an approach:

• allows for the utilisation of local knowledge (e.g. on real-life unfulfilled needs) therefore the design of actions which are really relevant for the community;
• allows for the utilisation of local resources (including local stakeholders as technical contributors but potentially also as financial sponsors);
• helps to sensitise the general public regarding demographic change, e.g. helps to improve intergenerational solidarity;
• initiates a motivating and learning process with the local stakeholders;
• strengthens commitment of stakeholders to the aims and planned activities.

Potential stakeholders include for example:

• local municipalities;
• development agencies;
• service providers;
• civil and religious associations;
• institutions representing collective interests;
• groups of local citizens.

It is important that stakeholders are involved from the very beginning of the planning process. In case participation occurs only at later stage of planning, its benefits are compromised: local knowledge and resources may not be built into the project design, and exposure to already developed plans at a late stage of planning may create mistrust and lack of commitment.

In the implementation of actions, new types of co-operations between different actors may be useful, e.g. the transfer of part of the responsibility of public services and infrastructure to new types of public-private consortiums, or public-private-people partnerships (PPPPs).

For putting the concepts into practise it could be a good way to involve citizens as volunteers; re-utilising abandoned buildings; organising co-operative social care services with local/public administration; creating integrated social care centres and integrating spaces for elderly and youth take part in common activities.

Consider regional/local particularities and differences

The feasibility and effectiveness of actions strongly depends on how well they are embedded in the national, regional and local context: how well did they identify problems, how relevant and acceptable the proposed solution is for the local community, does the solution proposed comply with the local regulations, did they manage to identify and involve relevant stakeholders, etc. Therefore planning of actions/the transfer of actions from one country/region to another should rely on a place-based planning, including in-depth, multi-folded and multi-level analysis of the local context, where:

• multi-folded means that apart from analysis on demographic trends, attention has to be paid also to the geographical (physical geography, settlement structure), social, economic, administrative, institutional, legal, historical, political, cultural features of the area;
• multi-level means considering the relationships of the area with others at various geographical scales (local, regional, national).

Long-term economic feasibility

When calculating economic feasibility of planned actions, the following should be taken into account:

• Due to the complexity of potential actions and the lack of ‘quick solutions’ of successful adaptation to demographic change economic feasibility should be considered rather in long term than short term.
• Actions may not result in direct cost-saving but in avoiding greater or future costs (e.g. investment in preventive health care measures reduces future therapy costs), indirect savings or obtaining new incomes or non-monetary benefits (e.g. better life conditions, prolonged activity, reduced ecological stress, policy participation etc.). An integrated calculation of profitability through considering all costs is encouraged.
• In case of services of general interest (e.g. water provision), safeguarding the right of all citizens to access the needed services can be considered more important than cost efficiency. It is often reflected in legal provisions making the provision of such services compulsory. Therefore it can be a legitimate – and more realistic – aim to develop a reorganised system of services at the same cost level, financially feasible over long term.
• Adaptation itself may involve initial costs which should not be rejected as such.
• It is difficult to make medium/long term estimates on costs, benefits and other impacts, nevertheless they should be provided.

Innovative finance

In order to solve a growing set of complex social problems and societal challenges with fewer funding, specific attention should be paid to innovative finance of services and infrastructure. Suggestions include:

• It is necessary to look for new participatory models addressed to public and private actors, as well as to the local civil society at large (the so-called public-private-people partnerships, PPPPs).
• Recourse to innovative models of social finance such as community investing.
• Combination of different funding sources (local, regional, national, EU, private investments) may be needed to cover the resource need of actions.
• Adequate resources have to be granted in all the phases of the action, from design through implementation, monitoring and assessment.

Paradigmatic change of EU regional development policy

So far, regional and municipal governments have implemented rather investment-oriented policies than cost-saving policies while using EU structural funds. It happens many times that elected regional and municipal governments build any type of new infrastructure in their regions without a sound justification and budget for their long term maintenance. From a short term perspective it is an additional input for municipal/regional budget which is usually positively perceived by the public.

In the programming for the 2014–20 period – triggered by new legislations and objectives of EU Cohesion Policy and guidelines issued by the Commission – it is stressed to take into account more carefully the verification of development needs and the long-term sustainability and benefits of projects (see for instance the requirements and recommendations on applying intervention logic and evidence based planning, enhancing energy saving and the role refundable subsidies instead of non-refundable grants).

Review questions

• List and present five guidelines for the planning of actions to adapt to demographic change.
• What can be the use of pilot actions for policy making?
• What are the benefits of early participation, and the risks of delayed involvement of stakeholders?

Orienting questions

Choose a topic from the ones discussed in Chapter 3. Plan an action in the chosen policy field, considering:

• What are the main policy documents governing this field in your area? (Consider different territorial levels.)
• Who are the main stakeholders in the specific topic in your area? Consider different types of actors (public administration, civil organisations, service providers etc.)
• Draft a ’plan for planning’. Whom would you involve and in what form? What would be the main steps of the planning process?
• What would be the outputs of planning?
• Are there any options for actions in the chosen field which
  • directly save costs?
  • save costs through avoiding greater or future costs?
  • lead to indirect savings?
  • lead to new incomes?
  • lead to non-monetary benefits?
• Are there any regulations or standards which might need revising?
• Are there any other fields (policy areas) which have strong interlinks to the chosen field, therefore might need action? (E.g. spatial reorganisation of social services needs a consideration of transport opportunities.)
• What could be the main financial sources for such an action? (Consider innovative models of social finance too, such as, local co-operatives!)
• What could be the most telling performance indicators of the action?