1. Introduction

For decades, our economic systems and with it the welfare systems have been focused exclusively on growth, both in terms of output generation and in terms of population. However, in the 21st century we are arriving at a point where growth is not necessarily the reality: societies in Europe and the developed countries in general are for the first time stagnating or even diminishing by individual choice, not catastrophes. Most of these countries have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and, at the same time, a continuously rising life expectancy, resulting in the ageing of societies.

Population shrinkage and population ageing is already a relevant issue to deal with in Central Europe and its regions. The term 'demographic change’ may include several parallel processes and phenomena such as population ageing, low birth rates, changing family structures and migration, however in the framework of the ADAPT2DC project the term ‘demographic change’ is used in the narrow sense referring mainly to ageing and population shrinkage.

’Demographic change’ has become the subject of political debates in many developed countries, as decreasing population and the growing share of elderly people in societies have far-reaching effects on economy, society and environment: jeopardising the operation of welfare systems, impeding economic growth, decreasing social cohesion, leaving behind abandoned housing, services and infrastructure just to name a few. Demographic change is expected to become an issue for many European regions thus it is important to develop innovative strategies and policy tools for how to adapt to it. Demographic change is not only a problem generating new needs for development but also a complex challenge possessing development potentials as well. These potentials provide opportunities also for strengthening economy, for instance by providing alternative social service solutions trough involvement of inactive aged people (growing in number) into the social and child care services, or developing business serving the aged along the concept of “silver economy”. In spite of these inspiring opportunities, the mission of project ‘ADAPT2DC’ is finding solutions for feasibility of social services in aging local societies, with less emphasis on the opportunities of ageing.

The aim of the present e-book is to share the results of the project ‘ADAPT2DC - New innovative solutions to adapt governance and management of public infrastructures to demographic change in shrinking regions and cities of CE’ with the widest audience. The transfer knowledge to regional stakeholders and policy makers on demographic change especially ageing and population shrinkage, its impacts, good practices to tackle negative consequences in the field of public services (network infrastructures as well as social services), as well as more general policy guidelines for the planning of actions at the regional and local level.

The content of the present e-book is based on several outputs of the ADAPT2DC project that you can find on the www.adapt2dc.eu webpage.

The incorporated outputs were:

• 3.1.5.’Demographic Change in Central Europe’, Comparative Socio-Economic Background Analysis
• 3.2.6. Intenal Report on Cross analysis of infrastructure and service costs
• 3.2.7. Publication of the cross analysis results
• 3.3.5. Transnational Position Paper for shriking regions in CE
• 4.1.1. ’Best practice catalogue’(cost efficiency of service management)
• 4.1.2. ’Regional Guidebook Methods to Adapt to or Counterbalance Shrinking’
• 4.2.8. ‘Transnational Guidebook for Pilot Action Implementation’.
• 4.4.1. Joint evaluation of pilot actions
• 4.4.2. Transferability check report (draft version)
• 4.4.3. Development of political recommendations
• 5.2.8. ‘Recommendations from the Best Practice Catalogue’
• 5.3.2. Draft version of the European Strategy
• 5.4.10.Transnational Action Plan (Draft version)

ADAPT2DC is a project funded by the European Commission (grant agreement number 3sCE414P4) focusing on the Central Europe area, consisting of the following countries: Austria, Czech Republic parts of Germany (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Sachsen-Anhalt, Sachsen, Thüringen, Baden-Württemberg, Bayern), Hungary, parts of Italy (Nord Ovest, Nord Est), Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia.

1.1. Who am I and what could be the major fields of my interest in the e-book?

The e-book is especially targeted to practitioners at the local and regional level who face demographic change (ageing, population shrinking, selective migration) in their everyday work, or will be possibly exposed to such changes in the future. Information provided in the e-book is especially useful for:

• policy makers;
• staff of local/regional/national administration;
• development agencies;
• service providers;
• civil and religious associations;
• institutions representing collective interests;
• citizens active in public affairs.

The e-book is focused on the local and regional level, however, it can bear importance for national and transnational level stakeholders as well, by providing an insight on demographic change and its impacts, and presenting guidelines for policy planning.

Contents of the e-book may also be of interest for a wider audience interested in ongoing social changes, the challenges they pose and good practices to tackle them.

Orienting questions:

Who are you, how do you get into contact with the issue of demographic change – ageing, population shrinking and/or selective migration?

Which spatial level(s) is your activity focused on?

Is there a policy field of the ones below which you are especially interested in? What is this policy field?

• Economy – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3.1; Chapter 4.2: long-term economic feasibility, innovative finance ]
• Social policy – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3.2]
• Spatial, regional planning – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3.3, Chapter 4.2: acknowledging the reality of shrinking, Chapter 5.2.2]

In which fields of public services are you interested in: transport, water/sewage, health care and long-term care, social services, housing, or local supply?

• Transport and mobility – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 5.1.1]
Water/sewage treatment – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 5.2.3]
• Health and care – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 5.3.1]
Childcare and othe social services – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3.2.3, 5.3.2]
• Housing – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3.3, 5.2.2]
• Local supply – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 5.3.3]

Is there a topic from the ones below which interest you most?

• Trends of demographic change – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 2]
• Impacts of demographic change – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 3]
• Policy framework and guidelines for policy planning – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 4]
• Challenges and local solutions – information which may be of specific interest to you: [Chapter 5]

1.2. How can this e-book help me?

The e-book consists of four main chapters.

Chapter 2 presents the main trends of current demographic change in Europe, with a specific focus in Central Europe. Readers can obtain information on their own region through an embedded data base, and find regions with similar characteristics and problems.

Chapter 3 discusses the most important impacts of ageing and population shrinking on economy, society and the environment. It highlights the difficulties demographic change poses in public finances, including finances in such big welfare systems as health care and pensions, but it also presents the potential brought by ‘silver economy’. It also draws attention to the self-perpetuating process of the concentration of poverty.

Chapter 4 briefly presents the policy framework of actions to adapt services and infrastructure to demographic change, and discusses a series of general guidelines which help to create effective responses to ageing and shrinking.

Chapter 5 presents challenges brought by demographic change in specific infrastructure and service areas, together with suggestions to respond to these challenges, and good practices already implemented, to inspire practitioners facing similar challenges. Two different infrastructure and service types is presented: network infrastructures and services such as transport, water and sewage, and social infrastructures and services such as social care, health care, housing and local supply. For example, readers can learn how revitalisation of the inner city and creation of a more compact city structure can go hand in hand with the promotion of an autonomuous and active life style for the elderly through the example of Güstrowor how the financial and human resources of citizens can be used to maintain local supply as it happened in Barmen where local residents founded a cooperative to re-establish local services such as a bank, a post office, health insurance office, and a grocery shop offering regional wholesale groceries in an abandoned building.